Technology to send the stock market experts tell us: the market is always right. Why did they say? These words actually tell us: the power of each individual are minimal, so we can only think that the market always right, the flow, rather than contrarian.
However, another investment guru George Soros has also told us: the market often an error. Why did he say? he is actually trying to tell us: the market is not perfect, grasp it wrong the opportunity to earn money.
shows that the two statements are correct: one to tell us how to seize the opportunity to tell us how to operate one. Here, I can responsibly say: The Chinese stock market is ; mistakes the market Some investors difference, but the essence is completely the opposite. because
I think it is the some of the key questions that investors were misled to see reversed.
such as: mobility is mostly small issues, the relationship between interest rates and the stock market, total credit and credit rhythm problems, new issues, bank making additional market supply increased, the big trend of the Chinese economy, the general pattern of policy adjustment and some temporary problems, and so and so. We might as well look at one by one, to see how in the end we had.
largest market worries is speed is not sustainable, we must return to normal growth, which is the market consensus. More importantly, a year after high-speed growth in the future must be two or three years of slow growth to digest. Although this process is to the normal contraction, the economy will be a hard landing, the economic cost would be enormous. I think the Central will not do.
One might ask: A few years ago to implement also told the rise? Yes. But out anti-causal relationship. I said: Because of the growth rate of money supply too fast, so it should be , the market liquidity is still huge, and the stock market all the way up.
remove this special year in 2009, we should see only the economic downturn, the growth rate of money supply will be very low, while the strong economy period, money supply growth pressure were hid. For example, the Asian financial crisis, China's economy deflation occurs, the broad money supply M2 growth for five consecutive years of 11% to 13% wandering; the contrary, 2004 five years to 2008, to tighten monetary policy again, but M2 growth has remained at 18% to 20%. (see Figure)
credit, too. the economic downturn, the amount of new credit is often is reduced, and the good time will substantially increase the amount of new credit. Now, do not want to incremental credit growth is too fast, showing that China's economy is in a better direction. Moreover, the total of 2010 plates have been identified credit 7.5 trillion. This is the end of last year based on the total amount of 40 trillion of new credit amount, far more than any previous one normal year. In this case, said that fewer loans, and I hardly agree. Besides the issue of new shares issued
. why the stock market drop in the amount of new issues continues unabated? This is what the government hopes to issue new shares to absorb liquidity in specific ways. This shows that the Government considers that market liquidity is very large, serious oversupply . Furthermore, we see the fact is: when the Chinese banks to issue convertible bonds to replenish capital, when the scale of central bank bills issued a corresponding reduction. Description: bond financing issued by banks, only the central bank reduced the pressure on the currency withdrawn from circulation, and did not reduce market liquidity.
the market worried about raising interest rates. price hike will not have a negative impact? of course. Because, deposit and lending rates of increase is directly related to the savings market and the comparative advantage of the stock market Changes related to changes in corporate financial costs, which affect the stock valuation of nearly.
but on the other hand, the rate hike cycle is often accompanied by , corporate profit growth investors often hedge the expected interest rate savings market due to the comparative advantages arising from the same, and enterprises will also wash away the real growth in corporate finance costs. can not? of course possible, our stock market , the profit growth of listed companies is not seriously impaired 20%, one or two percentage point increase in borrowing costs What kind?
especially in the Of course, the rate hike cycle coming to an end, they often have to open the stock market fell. but it can not be simply attributed to the decline in the stock market to raise interest rates because interest rates must be the end of a reversal in the economic cycle began when the economy entered business cycle theory, . but I am saying, is an turning point, and so a huge financial crisis, investors in some loss understandable, but the sober person would find a huge opportunity loss.
from December 1, 2009, i and Mr. Zhang Jindong Securities News Channel CCTV launched a new type of program file Financial Review, analysis program, starting from the stock market, look in all areas of economic life, every day of the premiere night time is 19:30 mm20: 00, Welcome. can not watch digital TV viewers can log on .