How to value investment in China to do
feels good today, according to my own feelings, when the broader market rose to two or three thousand points, when tens of thousands of friends to listening to lectures, because this time a lot of people make money, and in 1000, when very few people will listen, so now to lectures friend, at least psychologically, conceptually, is very good, investment in people are not interested in some of the time ahead, usually the to be daring.
my 99 years, and especially the 4 year bear market, the feeling can be, this four-year bear market funds managed by at least 30% of annual revenue or more. I have also gone through several stages. 99 years ago, like many friends, in front of a computer all day watching technology, see graphic, so that finally, make a mess, 99 years later, afraid to do, think can not lose is perhaps the most important rules, so 99 years later to the direction of efforts toward value investing. See the forum topic is 05 years of investment channels, according to my own views, not 05, 04, 03 of the points, which year will do.
I stock market is doing so, to sum up, there are about four ways.
the first one, I called three no doctrine, that do not look at tape, do not believe in technical analysis, do not do predictions. do not look at the tape, is very simple tape is good, the bad stocks also fall a mess, there are still stocks daily limit, you have to just look at the broader market for stocks, or to be planted in individual stocks, and the other and vice versa, the four-year bear market, in fact, in some stocks on high, brought us very good return, so to see the broader market is useless, eventually you have to implement individual stocks, this sentence a few exceptions, only in index funds on this issue, depending on the broader market, in how much time the average price-earnings ratio, we should add to buy, when to lighten up. so I usually do not look at the broader market.
second, do not believe in technical analysis and wave theory 99 years ago watching too much of Gann theory , 18, felt able to use martial arts to give it a try, there is a period of time, some of my friends are Zuozhuang, I'm obviously looking at making big room to the ultimate responsible banker told me, you see, today I am so close ** stop price, the results in the ** stop price, which impressed me, so the K line graph of these things, you can not say that it is a lie, but a lot is a lie, if you rely on these technologies analysis, ah, very dangerous, these risks include, you may stuck in a high position. I have many friends to do technical analysis, you see, which one can say clearly that they are up or down tomorrow, can not do, if you has been to pursue this to the fortune teller, and this does not help our investment.
so (third) do not do forecasts, do not do forecasts, precisely, do not do short-term forecasts, can do long-term forecasts, such as on China's economy or a business, you can probably tell a long-term situation, such as mobile phones there, you do not buy those shares of BB machine, color film there, do not buy black and white film stock, digital cameras came out, the traditional camera stock, like the famous Kodak, is not going to touch it, which we also can predict that SARS came, tourism, aviation industry are affected, we probably can be predicted. But you say, tomorrow, we must to 1000 points, it is absolutely below the 1000 high point of .2005, to rise to 5000 points, and added that a certain day of a rise in the number of points, this is the exact error, who predicted that a year or dare a certain date the number of minutes rose to a second point, basically all lies, precisely wrong than vague right good, so I do not do forecasts.
This is the first, the investment method, the three not doctrine.
second, the investment strategy of twelve words, those twelve words? I put quotes Buffett as something like the *** of five years, and I summarize in your own words, using Twelve words can be summed up: good stock good price, long-term holding, proper dispersion. These twelve words in order of priority, the most important is a good stock. for a good share in the above, say it is very wide, but I think, a simple to talk about cheer shares: There are core competencies, have a long viability and profit of not less than 15% annual growth, return on net assets of not less than 10%, and so on. I asked a brief description, a further example. my own A stock market, Hong Kong stock market over the years feel that the probability of its stock in 1000 to 50 in the Shang Hao's considered pretty good, if you frequently buy shares, certainly the more a good range of stock, I, 4 buy stocks on average is 2-3, so I bought some 200% earned at least 50% earned at least, that you must work on in a good stock. Here I am talking about are the most important things.
good price, this a good price, a lot of shares of Friends, in addition to not bought shares, buying them the error ** shares, there is the question of price. Let me give some examples, we provide tickets will be lots of phone calls Which airline discount play more to see, we went to the supermarket to buy food, have to look at the price, 10 yuan a kg of bitter gourd, I have to find 2,3 per 1 kg of bitter gourd, 100 Apple, who would buy 100 element of the Apple? we'll go to the apple 3 yuan. I think you buy Apple, it may taste, look good or bad apples. We usually buy things, is unambiguous. buy a dress, and repeatedly re-examination, bargain .1000 per garment in half and then turn. And many of us to buy stocks, out of all the net worth, years of savings, but buying a stock is really sloppy, a phone order, or listening to a friend said: rose! cheap. From the absolute price of view, that is a lot of errors. you will find in Hong Kong, HSBC, 130 yuan of friendship than Threepenny international, do not know how much cheaper. Threepenny 1000 times the stock price-earnings ratio, or bankruptcy soon, and 130 yuan of HSBC, you put in there, earned an annual average of 5%, no problem at all. This is the price of errors. I am the target company, will be carefully calculated, which considered it the price only worth buying. I bought the Liquor, at the present price of ex, is to buy 15 yuan, the dynamic price-earnings ratio is 10 times less than the static price-earnings ratio is 12 times the 12 yuan to buy Yunnanbaiyao, Tong Ren Tang Technologies is 5.5 yuan to buy, I have a discipline, any more than 20 times earnings, and all do not buy any good stock control your bad stock, the management people how to say, Why? because, according to Buffett's value investing theory, a very important one, you buy a stock, you want to, then good companies around the world, an annual average growth of 40%, so the company is too small, you have to maintain 40% growth, you can use 20 times earnings to buy it, why? because he still has one, we need to intrinsic value in the market price is half of the time, we can buy, and when it's intrinsic value is 40 million, we would have to approach the market in its price of 20 yuan, which is half of the time to buy it, you have the exact grasp, as long as it inward in the value of the return, you will earn 100%. Then, steady growth and the pricing is relatively simple, it is to maintain an annual 20% growth, at 10 times earnings for the time to buy, I, for example, Tong Ren Tang, you can see, from 93 years to the present, the average annual net profit growth of 20%, then we buy it at 10 times earnings, You can buy too easy to make money. now earn less than the broader market fell to 1000 points, it has 30 times earnings, then we can not buy, you can buy another, you can wait until I dealt with this situation as appeared, and then buy it.
relatively simple and stable growth stocks, cyclical stocks to more complex, but also the pricing is very important. me give another example, the Shanghai Automotive, the automotive industry, you are very good, Shanghai 16 yuan 18 yuan to buy cars, then buy it to make a mistake, buy the highest point, from 16 per set to 4 yuan, especially cruel, is not it? but with this method I am talking about, you will find time to not buy 16 yuan, according to Warren Buffett's teacher Graham method, it is very simple, cyclical stocks, you put it the profits of 7 to 10 years, all together, then divide by 7 or 10, the average annual profit can be calculated, according to the pricing, risk greatly reduced, because such a calculation, Shanghai Automotive's best price is 2.6 yuan, even in the worst performance when the Shanghai Automotive, periodic time low, with 2.6 yuan to buy, you are not afraid of .2.6 and 16 yuan to buy dollars to buy, a huge difference, and indeed, why many people, a few years ago, my office the following electrician came running, saying he wants to buy Shanghai Automobile and Changan car, we can see how popular, in fact, time, and now know, a sum of 80%.
pricing is very important, good stocks also have a good price.
Here is another of the bear market down, we most not accept this is good company, when you buy a good price, you long-held no problem, right? me give an example of the foreign, you bought Wal-Mart a decade ago, long-term holding, now up for two , three times, 100 years ago to buy the Coca-Cola, you make a 2000 times, 2000 times Yes, 1 million yuan to buy, now is 200 billion. I own the stock, I bought the Maotai, I patiently wait for it listed for two years, I did not touch it, until 2003, the turning point there, and I talk about a little, in October 2003, the liquor industry there is a very interesting phenomenon, the liquor industry after a 5-year bear market, the National fell to 3.2 million tons annual output of 800 million tons, the concept of life has changed, many people drink beer, wine, not drink liquor, wine shuttered In 2003, liquor sales stopped declining, began to rise, Maotai increase, I'll wait two years, the price dropped to the standards I set, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 10 times, three or five years I think there's big opportunity came to buy, and to mobilize a lot of friends to buy. But unfortunately, many of my friends made a two, three money to Sign discard. a lot of people bought the stock very poor, no money, he kept it, the result has been set, the more sets of deeper 4 yuan to 40 yuan sets: 40 sets to 30 could not bear to cut, set to 20 numb, set to 10 yuan, he matter, a few years, a bear market over, open the bill and saw all ** shares. why? good stock made money are thrown out, the bad stocks have holding. like in my house, the grass is left behind, pulled the flowers to play. bad money drives out good money, in many of our friends, bad drives out good shares of stock, leaving the stock is very poor, so , good stock to have been held. listen to my suggestions to buy a Maotai, buy Shuanghui, bought the Shanghai airport, bought a Tong Ren Tang, bought a Yunnanbaiyao, earning a lot of friends, two dollars out of it, throw away, till now, it has tripled, up 200%, but not many people left behind, it is apparent, and bought a company that is a good price, if you can not hold on the case, the final profit also Debu back guarantee. these twelve words which, long-term hold, I think is essential. The long-term holding which also includes a conviction, we have this concept of stock selection, when you do not want to hold this stock 15 years, 20 years, a lifetime, you do not buy it. you have such a spirit, can buy a good stock. I bought the stock, holding, will not move, and I said no move is the meaning of fundamentals do not change, to hold life. because it has been making money thing.
the last twelve words, it is appropriate to spread, it is relatively simple, even the best companies, even the best stocks can not just buy a like the Shanghai Airport so good, so good as Maotai, can not just buy one, should be appropriate dispersion, dispersion due to what extent better? I feel 5 to 10 is better, not too much, too much of the future we However, I play a lot every year and the Deputy General Manager Tel, a listed company I often go to run, to attend the general meeting, if I buy 100 shares, that I also busy. so proper dispersion.
This is the second, twelve words.
third, the first industry, after the stocks. the first trades stocks What is the reason? us to buy stocks, after so many years, we have experience, and buy stocks to buy in this industry leader. Buy the best, you buy meat, definitely buy Shuanghui; you want to buy liquor, which apparently Maotai and Wuliangye election; I want to buy steel stocks to buy Baosteel; I want to buy airport shares to buy throughput, traffic , supply the largest airport; I want to buy wine, you can only buy the Great Wall and Changyu red, I would not buy a lightly; beer, Tsingtao Beer and Yanjing is obviously beer; Dairy, Yili and Mengniu is second to none, not to choose such a triple and a new hope; the electronics industry, ZTE, Huawei, if listed, that are inside, we all have to buy a faucet. buy lead, depends on the industry, which also select individual stocks. General now ** will not buy shares, but also a leader, I think the industry is also very important choice to select individual stocks, they must be distinguished according to the industry, because time is not too much, I can only talk about simple click.
Why should we distinguish between industry? First of all, we must distinguish between the stable growth of the industry and cyclical industries, like pharmaceuticals and other food and beverage, is steadily growing industries, such as drugs, not just because the economy is good, I'll take more medicine, every day eat three half kilogram, the economic situation is not good to eat one, do not eat cold medicine. cyclical industry, it is not the case, we most of the errors, the most vulnerable in the price-earnings ratio on a cyclical industry, when you Look, in 2004 to the present macro-control, a lot of losses are losses of .04 in the cyclical industry, the cyclical industries, steel, cement, petrochemical, automotive, banking, these industries, and their price-earnings ratio is very low, when the price-earnings ratio if only 2,3 times, if you look at price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio less than 10 times that, you buy these cyclical industry, it would be a big if, in fact just the opposite cyclical industry, price-earnings ratio is high, performance mess, exactly worth buying. For example, gold, gold prices soaring, gold stocks are soaring, you can not buy this time, you wait until the price of gold close to the cost of mining gold mines, gold mines, mining costs will be about is about 220 U.S. dollars an ounce, gold fell to that time, gold mining is no money to make, it will stop mining, one to stop mining, gold mining companies and you'll see a very high price-earnings ratio, it may be a hundred times higher to But precisely at this time, you buy gold stock, $ 220 an ounce in gold buy gold when the stock, then a lot of money. In cyclical industries, it is easy to earnings, net assets taken, so I think, first of all very important to distinguish between industries.
Why do I give another industry first option, then select individual stocks example, from the perspective of excellence, the importance of selected industries where? some industries, it that does not produce a large bull stock, you see, the U.S. Dow Jones index can be seen, a large bull stock are produced in where? big bull stock are produced in manufacturing, services, mining industry. you formed the Dow Jones index of listed companies doubled, the vast majority belong to these three sectors, we are talking about General Electric, Coca Cola, Gillette razors, are manufacturing, Wal-Mart, some well-known banks are the service industry, Exxon Mobil, China China's oil belongs to the extractive industries, large Ushimata are born in these industries. What industry is that no big bull stock? You think about it, public utilities, not to a big bull stock. you look at the European stock markets, stock market began from the Netherlands, two hundred years of history, and there is a utility which shares of National Cheng Kung University Ushimata? gas, subway, highways, tunnels, power, bridges, this company, I suggest that you do not buy it, not that these can not be make money, but that you want to make on it 100 times, 10 times, hard! we have to do a professional investor, is to have a ideology that is, soldiers do not want to be general, not good soldiers, do not want to billionaire investor, I said not a good investor, we want to be billionaires, our stock selection will think about it, do not go from the utilities in the election, gas, highway, subway, their prices by control, you want to get metro price increase, people want to BS-ing, and to report to the NPC to go, how do you make Subway a bull stock? Metro trim, repair highways, dozens of motionless billion in loans to banks, a huge capital expenditure . and manufacturing it, you see ZTE, it has to sell products to Europe and sold in Africa to go, this is the advantage of the manufacturing sector, it can sell the most remote areas, can be sold to every corner of the earth, Coca-Cola is one such example, Wal-Mart in global expansion, the banks in the global expansion of these industries can produce super bull stock, up ten times, Wal-Mart from birth, up to 500 times.
some industries, Do you really want to enter a sunset industry, we do not buy. For example, Kodak, does not produce a black and white film. handset, just come out when the sun is very bright business, but now, we are very clear, the phone is a sunset industry, to do too many phones, it has not made money. Some industries can not make big money destined to, for example, airlines, I never bought airline stocks, I'll give it a name, called two bullied industry, what is two bullied ah? it on the one hand the rising cost of airline costs are two, one petrol, one is a lot of labor, is always the price of oil, while the wages, we recall the look, so many years now When do you see a decrease in wages? every city in the minimum cost of living increase, we did not see the drop. Shenzhen Airlines is doing the best, doing so well, it is a plane, but also 110 individuals , ground handling, flight attendants, captain for the plane, the cost is always rising, the airline under the head, the cost in the end in disappointment. that one and end in disappointment, is price, the old discount airline tickets.
But some industries, two have benefited, while reducing costs, while raising prices. You see Philip Morris USA, the production of Marlboro cigarettes, as well as Shanghai's Chinese cigarettes, smoke it can continue to introduce new technologies, continue to reduce costs , tobacco processing, to reduce the human costs from year to year, in turn, tobacco prices increased year by year. Zhonghua cigarettes, a 1,000 yuan, up more than the number of the Cultural Revolution, when we find this industry, it is both infinitely price increases, but also can continue to reduce costs, airlines can not buy this, costs, lower prices. Qingdao Haier, I admire it, very good, but it is in a very unfortunate industry, steel, raw materials are continued price increases, but many home appliances business, another bargain, prices continue to fall, so I never buy home appliances in stock. We must distinguish the industry.
first trades stocks, this is my third.
fourth, stock selection is extremely harsh conditions. I, for example, a foreign artist, very hard, the average daily painting to painting, but one year, did not sell a painting, and then ask an old painter say that I am so hard every day, how can not sell a painting. The old artist said, if you can, in turn, with 364 days a year to paint a picture, with one day to sell paintings, I'm sure you I can sell. This example of my shares of listed companies, is very instructive, I probably do. is to use 364 days to study, to investigate, to find from life. Do not look at the computer every day Price, the price each day, dropped from three two, two quick rise to three, there is not much significance. with 364 days to see annual reports, to investigate, to think, time to buy stocks one day, in fact, one day I said time, no exaggeration, I remember I spent a year in recent years the time to buy stocks, in fact, less than a day because too easy to buy stocks now, just call, just a few clicks online, a few minutes on the end. But this point needs to be done, really is not easy, because most of the shares of the Friends, many elderly people, staring at the screen all day, trading stocks, really miserable, they buy stocks, do not know whether this company is doing, this company was good, not where. all day long stare, where you can see the money? do not see the money in the. with 364 days of the study, and why only one day to buy stocks? There are several harsh conditions to stock selection. this harsh popular point of speaking, is the cream of the crop, 100 shares to be elected to a pretty good. If we could do a thousand miles to pick one, so much the better.
me cite an example, as the end.
demanding to what extent? one is the one to thousands of pet, we want to buy the stock, to comply with many conditions, if not eligible, do not buy, that is to have a concept, this idea after four years of a bear market, many friends difficult to accept, but I do so consistent, that is, you buy this stock, you should be like buying a house to buy their own living, you just buy a house is not set, then three sold two days, and for a right? a lot of people live in a house to live my life. precisely because to live life, because you want your savings to buy a house for several decades, great attention to the selection, location, ventilation, and the sun. We buy stocks, buy a house should be like that to pick.
second collection of stamps to be the same as to collection. philately stamp collecting, like the Cultural Revolution, Lin Biao time stamps, will not easily get rid of it , and that put the more valuable the more. good company's stock, too, a long time, will be very valuable, often in the middle of the oil stock has a fixed time, Maotai often has a fixed time, often there is not Yunnanbaiyao moving time, but over time, you know, it gave you an annual increase of 15% to 20%. If the current 100 million, up 20% per year, four decades later, all billionaires. and we still Easy, you can go on vacation, play, go fishing. but only to be good, good you can treasure. like collection of stamps that. There is a saying, such as the selection his wife stock picking, which we listen to bad words, and I feel is the truth, we have to choose life partner as well as stock selection. That is, what aspects of the company must comply with standards, I hold shares in the current inside, there is a like this, where ways are good, that thousands of pet in a fall, and I do not speak the name of the condition to talk about it, we hear may be heard out of which one, but how we can according to my stock picking this demanding standard, I believe we soon, Even if I reach this stringent standard, but as long as this standard line, then at least a little, we will not buy ** shares, will not lose money you pay to buy eight percent, ninety. not more than 20% loss.
It has well-known brand, not only is the industry's well-known brands, but also the nation's well-known brands. this company has. The second product of its kind, that is, to leave which it was in place, other places can not produce. Japan can think a lot of ways, engage in more than a decade never been able to come out. it's own technical staff, put it in the vicinity to produce, not OK. is that the region has a monopoly. Third, it's advertising, do not spend much. because the old central leaders or well-known politicians, senior leadership to do it free advertising, it also does not require any advertising. Fourth, it do not take a lot of debt, it is not even borrowing. because we usually do not pay attention to many of my friends to buy stocks, and some very high rate of corporate liabilities, risks a result, some companies are about to collapse. like Shanghai's Fuxing Group, I was in charge you well, so much light your debt, I do not buy it. Meiling Electrical Appliance, Gree is a huge debt, more than 100 million of debt, 20 billion net worth, do not touch me like this. and this companies, there is no liability. not only has no debt, but not out of goods to receive the money. in China, where the lack of integrity, very outstanding debt default. We buy stocks, huge receivables to be careful. so many years, I CIMC admire the one hand, you can never get in the other set of groups. because in the collection of receivables is too big group, there is no receivables, why did I buy so huge receivables? you Dongfang Boiler to see two years ago, my boiler is not the East, which once received the advance payment of billions here, you know that its products do not receive money for absolutely no risk. and this company, there is no receivable , has not always produced the goods, first to the people's money. Sixth, people put the goods in the warehouse a few years, not worthless. computers, chips, put in a warehouse five-year, 1,000 yuan computer, put five-year, 100 are not sell. cookies, put five, you can sell money? cardboard, put five-year paper are all yellow, you can make money it? to the company products, not afraid of the backlog, the more it backlog, the longer it is more valuable. Seventh, it is the main production equipment, cellar, no maintenance, will not rust, will not be out of date, depreciation, on the contrary, the cellar will add value, why? its microbial population becomes richer and better and better wine out of the product.
the other way round, many of our heavy industry stocks, like the airlines, the aircraft is the most important costs, major equipment, A few years later to fly out, and it is necessary to spend money to buy new aircraft, and that shareholders make money? It was hard enough getting the money earned there, the passengers, but also to buy new aircraft, new aircraft is expensive. why do not we buy those devices will not be out of date? There are also more right. probably mean that we stock selection, use the most discerning eye to select stocks, the management is the same, the company's management, directors long, he himself is the industry's technical authority, he is the author of flavor products and standards makers, he never wavered decades its main industry, refused to many temptations. many examples like this. Finally, I think comes down to, in order to invest successfully, can be summarized with two words out, one that is, 364 days a year with carefully selected the best company, the second sentence, patiently waiting, waiting for the price I said get, good stocks was Price, on the line. do not delay your time, thank you!
upstairs flowers and the world Friends:
selection of industries and companies that profound.
good company and a good price on the understanding that I said Please Fu Zheng:
1, if the purchase price of Maotai is 15 yuan, 200 yuan at present, then from your purchase price to the present degree of market price before the bid is successful investment, that is, a the difference between profitability problem?
2, Maotai future there should be in accordance with the present situation to enhance the value of a relatively large space, such as also to 1000 yuan / share, in the current stock price under certain circumstances can not be overdrawn Buy?
my understanding is:
1, there is a cyclical stock market volatility cycle, but just as we said, the market level and the level of stock prices we can not grasp, only Look to buy or not worth the value of the subject matter of the future, this is a basic judgments; indeed may not have the margin of safety
2, good company's low bid, of course, there is such a successful transaction, but the problem The key is what we have to earn the money: the company is to enhance the intrinsic value of money, or margin of safety below the intrinsic value of money, this is a significant difference on the buy options;
3, my idea is to grasp living things, the principal contradiction, waiting for me, is the price I do not deserve to spend much time and energy to ask for one thing;
4, my views and Li Jian some say closer to the teacher, please express their high of about.
value investor profits always include two, the market volatility and corporate non-rational trend growth. long-term trend of the holder as long as the growth of corporate profits arising from, give up the irrational market fluctuations provided Jianpian Yi profits, but not because of the long-term holders to give up this profit to deny the existence of this profit, not to let someone else grab this piece of profit. If you love to eat Western food, which no objection, but because you love to eat Western food, you stomach for western food, you insist that Chinese food is not food, Chinese food toxic, it is ridiculous!
long-term holders of high returns, but the fact is people Jianpian Yi higher returns. The key is big money can not Qujian cheap, only to give up this profit. Buffett's teacher Graham and Buffett's investment in the early use of such a large number of investment money, was too much money as Warren Buffett, the margin of safety is not easy to do, So was changed to long-term investment. Buffett made the margin of safety in the early return on investment is 54%, later reduced to 24% for the long term. margin of safety is more suitable for small funds, not suitable for large funds and small funds themselves, and big money target is too large. individual investors can not regard themselves as big money, can not give up their advantage.
However, to the irrational market fluctuations Jianbian Yi, but it is not easy, need more ideas and skill skills. and most people just look at volatility, but also its reputation, saying: The market reflects all. In fact, they do so is tantamount to gambling, is a zero-sum game. the irrational market fluctuations Jianbian Yi, ideas must be clear , or accidentally become obsessed gambler.
Similarly, irrational market fluctuations in the growth trend even more difficult than the companies hold long-term stability, most value investors to give up the irrational fluctuation of the market provided Jianpian Yi profits, only to focus on growing business trend of the profits arising.
Weekend 2006-11-30 14:34:32
Saints Friedman < br> means that the market incentives on the voluntary exchange of coordination and competition, government intervention in the conflict of interest and monopoly, the essential difference between market and government are here. Friedman spent his whole life to the world that dump, and is precisely the truth.
Friedman (1912-2006) of death, the world lost one of God's saints. economists believe in God is the market, most people who know the market is Friedman.
market beyond all kings, saints and the government, as God in general, can not control, can not manage. markets wherever he went, supply sufficient, price stability, economic prosperity, not to mention the the most powerful of the and also all left a distinct imprint of Friedman.
magic lies in the efficiency of markets, efficiency is derived from the coordination of motivation. transactions on a voluntary basis, is the most basic activities of a market economy. because of its voluntary, must be mutually beneficial, otherwise they would not deal. reciprocal means, , that the efficiency improvement opportunities have been exhausted, the allocation of social resources to achieve the optimal state. without government, without plan, driven by self-interest, ...